Implied pull rate · Riftbound
Vendetta: boxes sell for 1.5× what's documented inside
As of October 12, 2026, a booster box sells for $145.55. Using community pull rates, the cards you can expect inside resell for $97.61. The $47.94 difference is a bet on the signature cards, which average $1,118. For opening a box to break even, one would have to appear about once every 23.3 boxes (0.26 per 6-box case).
Box market price$145.55lowest listing $132.00
Documented contents$97.61expected resale value per box
Premium over contents+49%$47.94 per box
Market-implied pull rate1 in 23.3boxes for a signature card
Expected value per box, by pull
| Pull | How often | Cards | Average price | Per box |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overnumbered showcases | about 1 per 2 displays | 31 | $117.29 | $58.64 |
| Showcase alt arts | about 2 per display | 28 | $10.72 | $23.16 |
| Epics | about 6–7 per display | 28 | $2.33 | $15.15 |
| Rares | about 25 per display | 46 | $0.03 | $0.65 |
| Documented total | $97.61 |
The chase cards with no known pull rate
- Akali, Rogue Assassin (Signature): $3,230
- Zed, Master of Shadows (Signature): $1,353
- Jayce, Defender of Tomorrow (Signature): $1,200
- Kennen, Heart of the Tempest (Signature): $1,152
- Mel, Soul's Reflection (Signature): $1,114
- Nasus, Curator of the Sands (Signature): $593.12
- Shen, Eye of Twilight (Signature): $529.63
- Ambessa, Matriarch of War (Signature): $482.42
- Renekton, Butcher of the Sands (Signature): $408.43
Open it or keep it sealed?
Expected resale value of opening one box, for different beliefs about how often a super alt art appears and different selling costs:
| Signature card | Selling costs | Value of opening | vs selling the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 every 4 boxes | 0% | $377.10 | $231.55 |
| 1 every 4 boxes | 10% | $339.39 | $193.84 |
| 1 every 8 boxes | 0% | $237.36 | $91.81 |
| 1 every 8 boxes | 10% | $213.62 | $68.07 |
| 1 every 12 boxes | 0% | $190.77 | $45.22 |
| 1 every 12 boxes | 10% | $171.70 | $26.15 |
| 1 every 24 boxes | 0% | $144.19 | $-1.36 |
| 1 every 24 boxes | 10% | $129.77 | $-15.78 |
| 1 every 36 boxes | 0% | $128.66 | $-16.89 |
| 1 every 36 boxes | 10% | $115.80 | $-29.75 |
| 1 every 60 boxes | 0% | $116.24 | $-29.31 |
| 1 every 60 boxes | 10% | $104.62 | $-40.93 |
| 1 every 120 boxes | 0% | $106.93 | $-38.62 |
| 1 every 120 boxes | 10% | $96.23 | $-49.32 |
Selling costs cover marketplace fees, payment processing and shipping. If the value of opening is below the box price, keeping the box sealed or buying singles is the cheaper way to own these cards.
Assumptions
- Pull rates: TCGTalk Vendetta pull-rate guide (community estimate from about 90 creator-box packs, which may run hotter than retail). A case is 6 boxes.
- Cards under $1 count as $0; commons, uncommons and base rares are left out.
- Within each pull, every card is treated as equally likely.
- The box price includes a sealed-collector premium unrelated to pulls, so the implied rate is an upper bound on what openers price in.