Implied pull rate · One Piece
OP-17 The World's Strongest Warriors: boxes sell for 2.0× what's documented inside
As of October 12, 2026, a booster box sells for $306.89. Using community pull rates, the cards you can expect inside resell for $151.07. The $155.82 difference is a bet on the super alt arts, which average $2,653. For opening a box to break even, one would have to appear about once every 17.0 boxes (0.7 per 12-box case).
Box market price$306.89lowest listing $298.99
Documented contents$151.07expected resale value per box
Premium over contents+103%$155.82 per box
Market-implied pull rate1 in 17.0boxes for a super alt art
Expected value per box, by pull
| Pull | How often | Cards | Average price | Per box |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manga rares | 1 per 2 cases | 4 | $1,122 | $46.74 |
| Gold SP inserts | 2 per case | 10 | $240.93 | $40.15 |
| Alt-art parallels | 10 per case | 17 | $22.98 | $19.15 |
| Secret Rares | 5 per case | 4 | $33.33 | $13.89 |
| Super Rares | 7 per box | 10 | $1.57 | $11.01 |
| Leader alt arts | 4 per case | 6 | $29.23 | $9.74 |
| Treasure Rare | 1 per case | 1 | $48.38 | $4.03 |
| Special-foil DON!! | 1 per case | 1 | $43.56 | $3.63 |
| Gold DON!! | 1 per case | 3 | $17.76 | $1.48 |
| Pandaman arts | ~7 per case | 6 | $2.13 | $1.24 |
| Documented total | $151.07 |
The chase cards with no known pull rate
- Rocks.D.Xebec (118) (Super Alternate Art): $6,100
- Monkey.D.Luffy (079) (Super Leader Alternate Art): $1,666
- Kaido (062) (Super Alternate Art): $191.79
Open it or keep it sealed?
Expected resale value of opening one box, for different beliefs about how often a super alt art appears and different selling costs:
| Super alt art | Selling costs | Value of opening | vs selling the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 every 4 boxes | 0% | $814.24 | $507.35 |
| 1 every 4 boxes | 10% | $732.82 | $425.93 |
| 1 every 8 boxes | 0% | $482.65 | $175.76 |
| 1 every 8 boxes | 10% | $434.39 | $127.50 |
| 1 every 12 boxes | 0% | $372.13 | $65.24 |
| 1 every 12 boxes | 10% | $334.91 | $28.02 |
| 1 every 24 boxes | 0% | $261.60 | $-45.29 |
| 1 every 24 boxes | 10% | $235.44 | $-71.45 |
| 1 every 36 boxes | 0% | $224.76 | $-82.13 |
| 1 every 36 boxes | 10% | $202.28 | $-104.61 |
| 1 every 60 boxes | 0% | $195.28 | $-111.61 |
| 1 every 60 boxes | 10% | $175.75 | $-131.14 |
| 1 every 120 boxes | 0% | $173.18 | $-133.71 |
| 1 every 120 boxes | 10% | $155.86 | $-151.03 |
Selling costs cover marketplace fees, payment processing and shipping. If the value of opening is below the box price, keeping the box sealed or buying singles is the cheaper way to own these cards.
Assumptions
- Pull rates: TCGTalk OP-17 case-mapping calculator (community aggregates; Bandai publishes no hit rates). A case is 12 boxes.
- Cards under $1 count as $0; commons, uncommons and base rares are left out.
- Within each pull, every card is treated as equally likely.
- Left out for lack of a market price: Monkey.D.Luffy (EB04-061) (SP).
- The box price includes a sealed-collector premium unrelated to pulls, so the implied rate is an upper bound on what openers price in.