Implied pull rate · One Piece
OP-16 The Time of Battle: boxes sell for 3.0× what's documented inside
As of October 12, 2026, a booster box sells for $214.21. Using community pull rates, the cards you can expect inside resell for $71.97. The $142.24 difference is a bet on the Manga rares, which average $1,081. For opening a box to break even, one would have to appear about once every 7.6 boxes (1.58 per 12-box case).
Box market price$214.21lowest listing $210.97
Documented contents$71.97expected resale value per box
Premium over contents+198%$142.24 per box
Market-implied pull rate1 in 7.6boxes for a Manga rare
Expected value per box, by pull
| Pull | How often | Cards | Average price | Per box |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP inserts | about 2 per case | 6 | $150.51 | $25.08 |
| Secret Rares | about 8 per case | 4 | $25.18 | $16.79 |
| Alt-art parallels | 8–12 per case | 17 | $16.61 | $13.84 |
| Super Rares | 4–7 per box | 11 | $1.61 | $8.87 |
| Leader alt arts | 2–4 per case | 6 | $25.19 | $6.30 |
| Treasure Rare | about 1 per case (one observed) | 1 | $13.14 | $1.09 |
| Documented total | $71.97 |
The chase cards with no known pull rate
- Sakazuki (Manga): $1,112
- Kuzan (Manga): $1,088
- Borsalino (Manga): $1,043
Open it or keep it sealed?
Expected resale value of opening one box, for different beliefs about how often a super alt art appears and different selling costs:
| Manga rare | Selling costs | Value of opening | vs selling the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 every 4 boxes | 0% | $342.25 | $128.03 |
| 1 every 4 boxes | 10% | $308.02 | $93.81 |
| 1 every 8 boxes | 0% | $207.11 | $-7.10 |
| 1 every 8 boxes | 10% | $186.40 | $-27.81 |
| 1 every 12 boxes | 0% | $162.06 | $-52.15 |
| 1 every 12 boxes | 10% | $145.86 | $-68.35 |
| 1 every 24 boxes | 0% | $117.02 | $-97.19 |
| 1 every 24 boxes | 10% | $105.31 | $-108.90 |
| 1 every 36 boxes | 0% | $102.00 | $-112.21 |
| 1 every 36 boxes | 10% | $91.80 | $-122.41 |
| 1 every 60 boxes | 0% | $89.99 | $-124.22 |
| 1 every 60 boxes | 10% | $80.99 | $-133.22 |
| 1 every 120 boxes | 0% | $80.98 | $-133.23 |
| 1 every 120 boxes | 10% | $72.88 | $-141.33 |
Selling costs cover marketplace fees, payment processing and shipping. If the value of opening is below the box price, keeping the box sealed or buying singles is the cheaper way to own these cards.
Assumptions
- Pull rates: TCGTalk OP-16 pull-rate guide (community estimate from one English case plus single boxes; Bandai publishes no hit rates). A case is 12 boxes.
- Cards under $1 count as $0; commons, uncommons and base rares are left out.
- Within each pull, every card is treated as equally likely.
- The box price includes a sealed-collector premium unrelated to pulls, so the implied rate is an upper bound on what openers price in.