Implied pull rate · Pokémon
ME05: Pitch Black: boxes sell for 6.0× what's inside, and no pull rate explains it
As of October 12, 2026, a booster box sells for $184.09, but the cards you can expect inside resell for $30.71. Even a gold Mega Hyper Rare in every box ($137.57) wouldn't close the $153.38 gap. The premium is for the sealed product itself, which collectors and investors keep unopened.
Box market price$184.09lowest listing $164.99
Documented contents$30.71expected resale value per box
Premium over contents+500%$153.38 per box
Sealed premium$153.38per box, beyond any pull rate
Expected value per box, by pull
| Pull | How often | Cards | Average price | Per box |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rares | about 1 per 3–4 boxes | 6 | $54.69 | $15.86 |
| Illustration Rares | about 4 per box | 11 | $2.40 | $10.05 |
| Ultra Rares | about 1 per box | 18 | $3.69 | $4.80 |
| Double Rares | about 9 per box | 10 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Documented total | $30.71 |
The chase cards with no known pull rate
- Mega Darkrai ex - 120/084: $137.57
Open it or keep it sealed?
Expected resale value of opening one box, for different beliefs about how often a super alt art appears and different selling costs:
| Gold Mega Hyper Rare | Selling costs | Value of opening | vs selling the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 every 4 boxes | 0% | $65.10 | $-118.99 |
| 1 every 4 boxes | 10% | $58.59 | $-125.50 |
| 1 every 8 boxes | 0% | $47.91 | $-136.18 |
| 1 every 8 boxes | 10% | $43.12 | $-140.97 |
| 1 every 12 boxes | 0% | $42.17 | $-141.92 |
| 1 every 12 boxes | 10% | $37.96 | $-146.13 |
| 1 every 24 boxes | 0% | $36.44 | $-147.65 |
| 1 every 24 boxes | 10% | $32.80 | $-151.29 |
| 1 every 36 boxes | 0% | $34.53 | $-149.56 |
| 1 every 36 boxes | 10% | $31.08 | $-153.01 |
| 1 every 60 boxes | 0% | $33.00 | $-151.09 |
| 1 every 60 boxes | 10% | $29.70 | $-154.39 |
| 1 every 120 boxes | 0% | $31.86 | $-152.23 |
| 1 every 120 boxes | 10% | $28.67 | $-155.42 |
Selling costs cover marketplace fees, payment processing and shipping. If the value of opening is below the box price, keeping the box sealed or buying singles is the cheaper way to own these cards.
Assumptions
- Pull rates: TCGTalk Pitch Black pull-rate guide (community estimate from 753 packs; The Pokémon Company publishes no odds). A case is 6 boxes.
- Cards under $1 count as $0; commons, uncommons and base rares are left out.
- Within each pull, every card is treated as equally likely.
- The box price includes a sealed-collector premium unrelated to pulls, so the implied rate is an upper bound on what openers price in.