Implied pull rate · Disney Lorcana
Attack of the Vine!: boxes sell for 1.4× what's documented inside
As of October 12, 2026, a booster box sells for $194.71. Using community pull rates, the cards you can expect inside resell for $139.45. The $55.26 difference is a bet on the Iconics, which average $1,791. For opening a box to break even, one would have to appear about once every 32.4 boxes (0.12 per 4-box case).
Box market price$194.71lowest listing $190.00
Documented contents$139.45expected resale value per box
Premium over contents+40%$55.26 per box
Market-implied pull rate1 in 32.4boxes for a Iconic
Expected value per box, by pull
| Pull | How often | Cards | Average price | Per box |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enchanted | about 2 per 3 boxes | 18 | $183.14 | $122.70 |
| Epics | about 2–3 per box | 18 | $2.60 | $6.51 |
| Legendaries | about 6 per box | 12 | $0.79 | $4.71 |
| Super Rares | about 10–12 per box | 18 | $0.26 | $2.91 |
| Foil Legendaries | about 2 per case | 12 | $4.36 | $2.62 |
| Documented total | $139.45 |
The chase cards with no known pull rate
- Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun (Iconic): $1,953
- Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends (Iconic): $1,629
Open it or keep it sealed?
Expected resale value of opening one box, for different beliefs about how often a super alt art appears and different selling costs:
| Iconic | Selling costs | Value of opening | vs selling the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 every 4 boxes | 0% | $587.28 | $392.57 |
| 1 every 4 boxes | 10% | $528.56 | $333.85 |
| 1 every 8 boxes | 0% | $363.37 | $168.66 |
| 1 every 8 boxes | 10% | $327.03 | $132.32 |
| 1 every 12 boxes | 0% | $288.73 | $94.02 |
| 1 every 12 boxes | 10% | $259.86 | $65.15 |
| 1 every 24 boxes | 0% | $214.09 | $19.38 |
| 1 every 24 boxes | 10% | $192.68 | $-2.03 |
| 1 every 36 boxes | 0% | $189.21 | $-5.50 |
| 1 every 36 boxes | 10% | $170.29 | $-24.42 |
| 1 every 60 boxes | 0% | $169.31 | $-25.40 |
| 1 every 60 boxes | 10% | $152.38 | $-42.33 |
| 1 every 120 boxes | 0% | $154.38 | $-40.33 |
| 1 every 120 boxes | 10% | $138.94 | $-55.77 |
Selling costs cover marketplace fees, payment processing and shipping. If the value of opening is below the box price, keeping the box sealed or buying singles is the cheaper way to own these cards.
Assumptions
- Pull rates: TCGTalk Attack of the Vine pull-rate guide (community estimate from 216 packs; the Super Rare rate is the guide's claim, not its tally). A case is 4 boxes.
- Cards under $1 count as $0; commons, uncommons and base rares are left out.
- Within each pull, every card is treated as equally likely.
- The box price includes a sealed-collector premium unrelated to pulls, so the implied rate is an upper bound on what openers price in.